After the Rockets were eliminated, the latest probability of US media triggered heated discussion: One team has a chance to win nearly 50%, and the defending champion is only ranked third

The situation in the NBA playoffs suddenly changed! After the Rockets were eliminated in the first round, the authoritative organization "theanalyst" adjusted the championship pattern overnight. A Western Conference team led the lead with a nearly 50% chance, and the defending champion ranked third, which caused heated discussion.

East and West Final Four matches updated

Eastern Theater: Pacers win the Cavaliers in the first game, the Celtics are about to face the Knicks

Western Theater: The Youth Army Thunder Showdowns to the defending champion, the Warriors will meet the Timberwolves' Brass Walls Iron Wall

The eighth pick: Pacers (1.8%)

This young team, dubbed "regular season team", broke the doubts in the first game of the playoffs. Faced with the Cavaliers who have a home advantage, Halliburton smashed the "overestimated" tag with a quasi-triple double data of 22+13.

Interestingly, in the latest player tracking data released by the NBA, Halliburton ranked third in the playoffs player's speed, which may explain why he can tear open the Cavaliers' defense line repeatedly.

7th pick: Knicks (2.1%)

After the New York Legion passed the first round, it is about to face a real test. According to the analysis of the "ESPN" tactical board, the Celtics' defensive strategy against Brunson has achieved results - in three regular season matches, their shooting percentage was suppressed at 39.2%.

What's more serious is that the league referee report shows that the Knicks averaged 7.3 more free throws per game than their opponents in the first round, and this advantage may be difficult to continue in the second round.

No. 6: Defending champion (2.5%)

When people thought that the Nuggets' dynasty was about to collapse, Jokic supported the team with a quasi-triple double-double average of 28.8+13.2+8.4. However, the "538" data model points out the fatal hidden danger: the substitute score ranks last in the existing quarterfinals.

Faced with the Thunder's youth storm, the Nuggets need Murray to recreate the miracle of 40+ in the first round of G5. But the medical team revealed that Murray still had an inflammatory reaction in his left calf.

No. 5: Warriors (2.8%)

This team with an average age of 31.4 years old has just made history - becoming the second oldest Black Eight team in NBA history. Coach Cole revealed in an exclusive interview with "TA": "We adjusted the tactical weight of three-pointers, and Hilder got more running space without the ball. "

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Fourth pick: Timberwolves (5.2%)

Edwards' growth curve is astonishing: the playoff PER value (efficiency value) is 4.2 points higher than the regular season. What's even more terrifying is their defense, which limits the opponent's shooting percentage at the basket by only 48.7%, ranking first among existing teams.

Tactical analysis of "Tencent Sports" points out that the Timberwolves' unlimited defense replacement system just restrains the Warriors' pass and cut tactics. In the record of the two teams' matches in the past two years, the Timberwolves have an absolute advantage in 7 wins and 3 losses.

The third pick: Celtics (14.9%)

The ranking of defending champions has caused considerable controversy. The data website "Basketball-Reference" shows that when Tatum took action at a critical moment, the team's winning rate dropped by 12 percentage points.

Interestingly, in the fan vote initiated by "Open-Air Stand", 61% of the participants believed that after the Bucks were eliminated, there was no team in the East that could stop the Celtics.

Shot: Cavaliers (21.9%)

Even though Garland, a backcourt core averaged 21.4 points per game, the data model still favors the Cavaliers. The secret lies in their offensive efficiency - 119.3 points per 100 rounds, up 6.7 points from the regular season.

But "The Athletic" reminds: Mitchell's knee injury is aggravating, and his breakthroughs in the past three games have dropped by 23%, and the proportion of emergency stop jump shots has increased to 61%.

No. 1 Popularity: Thunder (48.8%)

Youth Guards are creating history: becoming the first Western Conference seed with a probability of more than 45% since the NBA implemented the current playoff system. Their net efficiency value (+13.2) leads the way, 5.7 points higher than the second place.

However, the "ESPN" expert team issued a warning: Alexander averaged only 4.1 free throws per game in the first round, a plunge of 3.9 times compared to the regular season. When the referee tightens the harsh standards, the MVP candidate needs to prove his hard-solving ability.

The pattern is undercurrent

As the playoffs deepen, two key variables are fermenting: the shadow of injuries covers the stars of many teams, and the referee's dictation scale has been tightened by 12% compared with the first round (NBA official data). Teams that can stay healthy and adapt to high-intensity confrontations may be the real champion contenders.