If the Lakers did not leave Brother Davis, will they win the championship this year?

On May 8, in the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs, the Los Angeles Lakers lost 1-4 to the Denver Nuggets, which made countless fans begin to reflect: If the management did not trade Anthony Davis (Brother Anthony Davis) after winning the championship in 2020, will the Purple and Gold Legion have a brighter future? To answer this question, it is necessary to conduct in-depth analysis from four dimensions: lineup construction, salary space, player status and league pattern.

###1. Lineup integrity and tactical adaptability

The Lakers, who won the championship season in 2020, demonstrated the perfect architecture of "dual-core drive + high-quality puzzle". The pick-and-roll cooperation between James and Davis is the deadliest weapon in the league. The latter's average of 27.7 points and 9.7 rebounds per game is not only reflected in the data, but also in his defensive deterrence from covering the three-point line to the penalty area. Referring to the dilemma of the Lakers being beaten by Jokic in the first round of the 2025 playoffs against the Nuggets (averages of 32 points, 14 rebounds and 8 assists per game), Davis's rim protection ability and bulletproof replacement are exactly the best answers to limit the MVP-level center.

Retaining the Dark Brow means that the Lakers can continue the "one-star" system. The Lakers' three-point shooting percentage was only 34.1% in the 2023-24 season (22nd in the league), and the Brows proved that she could open up space during the Pelicans (34% of the three-point shooting percentage in the 2017-18 season). The offensive triangle formed by his Reeves and Russell, in theory, can build a more three-dimensional offensive system in combination with James' role as a master in transformation. Compared with the helpless choice of the Lakers to play against the five-squad lineup in the real timeline, the existence of healthy Thick Brows will completely change the trend of the series.

###2. Salary structure and recruitment space

The 5-year maximum salary contract signed by Davis in 2020 will account for 35% of the salary cap in 2025, which really compresses the space for reinforcement. But referring to the real timeline, the Lakers gave Vincent three years and 33 million failed signings in 2024 (only 4 points per game in the 2025 playoffs), it is safer to retain the core framework. Although the combination of the Hilder + Turner in the trade of the Brows has enhanced the shooting, it has lost its top defensive core. Data shows that the Lakers' defensive efficiency in 2025 is 112.3 (15th in the league), while the 2020 championship season is 106.1 (3rd in the league).

What is more important is the bird's rights advantage. Using the early bird clause of Thick Brow, the Lakers can renew their contract at a lower than the market price in 2023 (similar to how the Warriors handle Clay’s contract). Compared with the 47 million salary space trapped in reality (the legacy of Westbrook trading), retaining Davis actually creates a more flexible trading environment. ESPN salary expert Bob Max once calculated that if the Lakers give up trading Davis, the Lakers can free up up to 20 million middle-class special cases in the summer of 2024, which is a golden opportunity to strengthen the wings.

###3. The butterfly effect of player development trajectory

The remaining eyebrows will change the growth path of many people. Austin Reeves, who shined in the 2023 playoffs, may grow into high-quality 3D faster under the dual-core system (over-consuming in reality leads to a decline in efficiency). And 2024 first-round pick Jaylen Hood-Sifino may be able to get more systematic training, rather than being abandoned under the pressure of record as in reality.

James' state continuity is also worthy of reevaluation. In reality, the 39-year-old James is forced to take on more scoring tasks (28.6 points in the 2025 playoffs). If the strong eyebrows share the pressure, the process of transforming into a "magic" organizer may be smoother. Referring to the career high of James' assist rate of 41.8% in the 2020 playoffs, the chemistry of dual-core is obviously better than that of single-core leading the team.

###4. Variables of the competitive landscape in the West

Faced with the arms race of the Western Conference powerhouses in 2025, the Lakers with healthy eyebrows are more competitive. Although the Nuggets maintain the core of Jokic Murray, they lose key players such as Bruce Brown; the Suns' Durant Booker combination is one year older; the Clippers' Leonard's injury risks always exist. The performance of Davis in the third place in the 2024 MVP vote proves that he is still the top five-level offensive and defensive player in the league.

What is particularly noteworthy is the qualitative change on the defensive end. In the 2025 playoffs, the Lakers gave the Nuggets a shooting percentage of 49.8%, while the Brows defended positive and negative values ​​in the season (2nd in the league). His historical data against Jokic (2020 Westminster Finals limit his shooting percentage to 43%) shows that this set of matches may subvert the series balance. As former Lakers coach Vogel said: "AD is one of the few players in the league who can defend Jokic alone and do not need double-teams. "

###5. The double-edged sword of injury management

Opponents often use the injury history of Thick Brow as an argument, but the data shows that his attendance rate has steadily increased during the Lakers period: he played 72 games in the 2023-24 season to hit a career high. The "load management 2.0" system developed by the Lakers Medical team (combined with AI prediction and biomechanical analysis) has significantly reduced risks. In contrast, the lineup instability caused by frequent array changes in the real timeline actually aggravates player losses.

###Conclusion

Taking into account the competitive level and operational logic in a comprehensive way, the Lakers, who retain the Dark Brows, do have the capital to be closer to the championship. They can not only maintain the top-level defensive system, but also continue to strengthen through bird power special cases. Although there is salary pressure, compared with the lineup imbalance in reality, the stability of the dual-core driver is more in line with the modern NBA championship rules. As legendary manager Jerry West emphasized: "In an era of scarcity of superstars, breaking up a combination that has proven successful is always the second choice." Perhaps the real mistake of the Lakers management is not whether to trade Damei, but the failure to build a sustainable championship ecology around James and James.