Rebuilding or trading, the moment to determine the fate of the Rockets is coming, it s really exciting

At 7 o'clock on May 13, the draw for the 2025-2026 draft will arrive as scheduled. For Rockets fans, this is basically the most important day before the offseason. For the Rockets, there should be no day before the Finals that is more important than this, right?

The Rockets will bring the Suns to the country that we work hard for, that is, the mysterious probability of winning the No. 1 pick 3.8% will enter the draft pool. The specific probability signing position is as follows: First choice: 3.8% Second choice: 4.1% Third choice: 4.5% Fourth order: 4.9% 5-8th order: 0% Ninth order: 50.7% Tenth order: 28.3% 11th order: 3.5% 12th order: 0.1% 13th order: >0.0%. After all, the Rockets are the second-ranked team in the West and can compete with the serious bad team in the lottery (although they have always been considered by the outside world as the second in the pseudo-Western).

I believe that Rockets fans are actually looking forward to miracles. I won’t talk about the ultra-low probability miracles such as Rose (1.75%) and the Cavaliers (1.75%) before, so I’ll just talk about it. The probability of the Hawks winning the No. 1 pick last year was only 3%, which was even lower than the Rockets now (3% is also the lowest probability of the draft after the restructuring of the draft).

If you can draw the No. 1 pick, the Rockets will not need any big deals to ask the star players to come this summer, just focus on Flag. Of course, it is best to trade a star guard, after all, the two backcourt combinations of Green and Van Jordan are not very reliable.

In addition to a 3.8% chance of winning the No. 1 pick, the Rockets have a 17.3% chance of winning the top four picks. Although it is equivalent to winning once every 6 draws, the probability is still quite high. Last year, the Rockets won the Nets' No. 9 draw with the Nets' No. 9 draw with the Nets with a 4.5% chance, which was quite a miracle. So the Rockets' luck in drawing lots is not bad.

If you can draw the top four draws, I personally think that the Rockets will have a high probability of trading this draw. In fact, except for Flag's T0 alone and Dylan Harper's T0 alone, he has no other top talent in this draft. The Rockets' current framework is actually not short of T0.5 players. Even if you draw a T1-level rookie, you won't have room for playing in the Rockets. Shepard is a good example.

Even if the defenders trade Jaylen Green, Shepard, and Sheriff will succeed him; if the forward Rockets are Bai Demon and Ethan; if the inside is Xiao Jia and Shin Kyung; so in theory, except for the T0 level embryo, the Rockets do not need quasi-first-line talents, so if the talent is saturated, this team will most likely become the Rockets' bargaining chip for replacing star players in the trading market during the offseason. Durant and Antetokounmpo are both good choices.