Trading letters: Are there any chances for the Mavericks, Warriors and Clippers?

Trading Antetokounmpo: Analysis of the Opportunities of the Mavericks, Warriors and Clippers

According to senior ESPN reporter Shams Charania, Milwaukee Bucks core Giannis Antetokounmpo has clearly expressed his open attitude towards future career planning for the first time, and his intention to renew his contract is no longer limited to the parent team. The statement has attracted high attention from various clubs in the NBA league. After the news was released, the league quickly launched a trade feasibility assessment, and several teams have begun to develop a potential trading framework in an attempt to win the opportunity to join the two-time regular season MVP.

is subject to the NBA salary structure rules, and some teams aiming to introduce Antetokounmpo face severe salary matching dilemma. According to the requirements of the Labor Agreement, any transaction plan involving Antetokounmpo must meet a single salary balance of at least $43.5 million, and the team's total salary after the transaction shall not exceed the first luxury tax trigger line. This strict conditions significantly increase the difficulty of trading operations, making most potential suitors need to build a complex multi-team trading architecture. Among them, the three competitive teams, Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers, have shown clear intentions to sign, but under the existing salary space and asset allocation, they all need to intervene through third-party teams to reach a compliant transaction.

Mavericks: Holding the King, but it's also tricky

The Dallas Mavericks' performance in the 2024-2025 season showed significant volatility. In the middle of the season, the team sent Luca Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers through a heavy trade in exchange for Anthony Davis, aiming to accelerate the construction of the championship lineup. However, the subsequent encounter with Kyrie Irving's season reimbursement due to anti-joint injury in the first quarter of the game. Davis was absent for only one game and was absent for a long time. In the end, the team lost to the Phoenix Suns by a large margin in the playoffs and missed the playoffs. The season came to an abrupt end. It is worth noting that in the NBA lottery ceremony on May 14, 2025, the team won the No. 1 pick with an extremely low probability of 1.8%, successfully winning the potential new star Cooper Flag, who is hailed by the industry as the "Future Star of American Basketball" and has top offense and defense capabilities.

Analysis of salary structure, if Kyrie Irving implements the 2025-2026 season's 43 million player option, the Mavericks' total salary will exceed the NBA luxury tax line of $8 million, which is $4 million higher than the first tycoon line. Under this salary framework, the team can only use no more than 100% of the player trading exceptions in trading operations; if Irving chooses to jump out of the contract, the team will lose important trading assets and face the pressure of double adjustments from salary space and combat power.

In terms of draft resources, the Mavericks currently hold considerable draft capital: including three tradable first-round picks (2025 No. 1 pick, Los Angeles Lakers 2029 unprotected first-round picks, Mavericks 2031 first-round picks), and two second-round picks, and have three first-round picks exchange rights in 2026, 2031 and 2032. But in a potential deal involving Giannis Antetokounmpo (Antetokounmpo), the team not only needs to meet the NBA salary balance rules, but also needs to meet the Milwaukee Bucks' reconstruction needs. Given the direction of the Bucks' strategic transformation, they tend to acquire young players with high growth potential and high-quality future draft picks.

According to "Open-Air Stand", a three-party trading proposal circulated in the market: the Mavericks will get Antetokounmpo; the Bucks will get the No. 1 pick, as well as players with ready-to-fighting power such as Max Christie, Jaylen Hawkins, Caleb Martin, Kelly Olynick; the New Orleans Pelicans will get Derek Lefley and the Mavericks' first-round draft pick in 2031. If the deal is reached, the Mavericks will form a super three-tier lineup of "Antetokounmpo + Davis + Irving (after injury recovery). According to data models, its defensive efficiency is expected to be among the top three in the league, significantly improving its competitiveness in the championship. However, there are multiple difficulties in implementing the plan: on the one hand, sending potential players such as Lefley may overdraw the team's future development potential. If the championship goal is not achieved, it will cause the team to fall into a long-term reconstruction dilemma; on the other hand, a third-party team needs to be introduced to undertake veteran contracts such as Klay Thompson ($16.7 million contract) or Daniel Gafford ($14.7 million contract) to complete salary matching. Teams such as the Orlando Magic or the Indiana Pacers that urgently need to increase their offensive firepower from the outside may be used as potential trading partners to promote the implementation of the plan.

Warriors: There are advantages in chips, but salary is a difficult problem

As a long-time champion in the NBA league, the Golden State Warriors still show strong competitive strength this season. After the successful introduction of Jimmy Butler, the team's salary structure showed a relatively flexible state before the free agent market opened, with a total salary of $17.5 million in operation space compared to the luxury tax line. However, if the Warriors choose to renew their contract with Kuminga, the team's salary may reach and break through the first rich line. As of now, the Warriors are $25.5 million away from the first tyrant line and $37.3 million away from the second tyrant line.

From the perspective of draft asset allocation, the Warriors have significant advantages. Although it gave out the 2025 first-round draft pick in the Butler trade, it still holds 4 first-round draft picks as potential trading chips, including 2026, 2028, 2028 (1-20 protection for picks) and 2030 first-round picks. It also has first-round pick swap rights in multiple years, supplemented by 2 second-round draft picks, providing rich resource reserves for subsequent trading operations.

When discussing the feasibility of trading Giannis Antetokounmpo (Antetokounmpo), salary matching issues have become the core challenge for the Warriors. Antetokounmpo's current salary contract of $43.5 million requires the Warriors to complete salary equality by trading players on the team's large contracts. Draymond Green’s $25.9 million salary contract is in the trading horizon, but the Milwaukee Bucks clearly lack interest in the 33-year-old. Therefore, the Warriors need to introduce third-party trading partners to complete complex salary matching and asset replacement. Such as the Detroit Pistons or the San Antonio Spurs who are in the rebuilding period, may serve as a potential third party to receive Green's contract in exchange for the Warriors' first-round draft pick compensation. On this basis, the Warriors can integrate third-party exchange-produced assets and pair with young potential players in the team (such as Moses Moody, Pojemsky, etc.) to build a competitive trading plan to attract the Bucks.

If the transaction is completed, the internal and external combination of Antetokounmpo and Stephen Curry will reshape the Warriors' offensive system and form the league's top tactical deterrent. This combination can not only significantly improve the team's offensive efficiency, but also greatly enrich the diversity of tactics and further consolidate the Warriors' championship position. However, the implementation of the above prospects highly relies on the strategy execution capabilities of Warriors management in salary structure optimization and trading chip allocation.

Clippers: Flexible salary, the plan to be polished

From the analysis of salary structure, the Los Angeles Clippers have performed soundly this season and have room for operating for James Harden to raise the salary contract. Even after making full use of most of the full middle-class special cases, the team's total salary is still controlled below the luxury tax line and the first tycoon line. According to statistics, after Harden's $36.3 million player option is included, the current salary level is $17.3 million lower than the luxury tax line, and there is a buffer range of $25.3 million with the first rich line, which gives him considerable flexibility in conducting trading operations.

The Clippers also have an advantage in draft asset reserves. As of June this year, the team held two first-round picks for trading in 2030 and 2032, and had the right to swap first-round picks in 2030, 2031 and 2032, and five second-round picks can be used as bargaining chips to form a relatively abundant pool of draft pick resources.

If the Clippers are interested in winning over Giannis Antetokounmpo (Antetokounmpo), center Ivica Zubac is undoubtedly one of the most traded assets. With rotational players such as Norman Powell and Derek Jones, supplemented with future draft pick combinations, it may form a trading plan that is attractive to the Milwaukee Bucks. If the deal is reached, Antetokounmpo, Harden and Kawhi Leonard will form a strong Big Three lineup, greatly enhancing the team's competitiveness. However, Harden's player options are uncertain: if he executes a $36.3 million player option, the expiration contract can effectively achieve trading salary matching; if he chooses to jump out of the contract, the Clippers will lose important trading matching chips. In addition, the high annual salary of core player Leonard of $50 million also puts certain restrictions on the team's subsequent salary operation.

The industry proposes a three-party trading concept for the Clippers, Houston Rockets and Bucks: the Clippers intend to send Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Derek Jones Jr. and many future first-round draft picks in exchange for Antetokounmpo; the Rockets use Cameron Whitmore, Jock Landal and the Suns first-round draft picks as bargaining chips to obtain Powell; the Bucks will obtain first-round draft picks and swap rights provided by multiple teams by trading Antetokounmpo, accelerating the team's reconstruction process. This plan helps solve some salary matching problems at the theoretical level, while meeting the strategic needs of all parties, but it still needs to further optimize details and reach a consensus among multiple teams before it can be promoted.

To sum up, the three teams, Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers, all showed positive intentions for Antetokounmpo's trade. Although each team has different dimensions of trading chips and competitive advantages, it faces multiple challenges in actual operations. Introducing third-party teams to participate in the transaction is becoming a potential solution to break through the dilemma. The final direction of Antetokounmpo's trading in the future is worthy of continuous attention.