Where will the Celtics go this summer?

Tatum's Achilles tendon tear completely opened the Celtics' Pandora's box, which will lose their best player for most of next season. For reference, it took Durant a full two years to recover after a ruptured Achilles tendon in the 2019 Finals. Obviously, in the absence of Tatum, the Celtics' tactical layout and team building will undergo tremendous changes. The Celtics' roster next season is the most expensive in history, and given the new labor agreement imposes more severe penalties on teams that pay luxury taxes repeatedly, management led by Stevens must reduce salary pressure this summer. At the same time, the management must ensure that after Tatum returns, they still have the strength to compete for the championship. Although Tatum may not fully recover until 2027.

So there are many factors to consider when evaluating which players should stay and which players may be traded. We will discuss some in this video, but first...

How many people do the Celtics need to lay off?

Even without Horford, the Celtics still have $230.6 million in existing contracts next season, including Davidson's team options and partial guarantees for Quita and Walsh. The threshold for the second luxury tax next season should be $207.8 million, which means that without Horford or filling the lineup vacancy, the Celtics have surpassed the second rich line of $22.8 million.

The new labor and capital agreement stipulates that teams exceeding the second rich line must strictly follow the 100% salary matching principle when trading. For players like Holiday with larger contracts ($32.4 million next season), only a few teams in the league, including the Nets, have room to take over Holiday's contracts, but they need to help from third-party teams. During this period, the Celtics will definitely be underpriced and even pay for draft picks.

Another point is that next season is the second consecutive year that the Celtics have exceeded the luxury tax. According to regulations, the first round of 2032 will be frozen and the first round of 2033 will be directly demoted. Judging from the current situation of the Celtics, the first round of 2032 is likely to be reduced to the end of the first round. For a team that has disbanded its core lineup, I personally think it is not worth it.

The following is my analysis of the various main players of the Celtics and various decisions during the offseason:

Holiday is the most reasonable trading goal for the Celtics. His defensive ability has begun to decline, and he is 35 years old and his shooting is not very good. More importantly, Holiday averaged 11.1 points per game this season, the lowest since his rookie season. The decline in offensive ability will make some potential traders lose interest.

If the management of other teams thinks that Holiday's contract is valuable, the Celtics should act quickly and trade Holiday will definitely pay the draft pick, but the Celtics can negotiate and give up some assets that are not very important, such as future first-round late draft picks or this year's No. 28 picks. Leaving him behind may damage his value. They can use Holiday to trade a player who may contribute to the team's future.

Christaps Porzingis | 30 years old | $30.7 million a year

Pozing's ability to open up space and protect the basket is an important reason why the Celtics become a championship team. And Pozin's injury history is indeed worrying, and it is not so easy to trade him due to the lack of a suitable replacement.

This season, only 13 players 2.08 meters tall or higher have made 6 three-pointers every 36 minutes, and only five of them are truly capable of serving as defensive centers: Pozin, Miles Turner, 3J, Vinbanyama and Alex Sal. Obviously it is not easy for the Celtics to find a replacement at the same level as Pozin, and the players mentioned above are not easy to obtain.

Apart from Horford's age and free agent status this summer, another key factor to consider is that Pozin will be an unrestricted free agent next summer and has not yet renewed, so understanding what he wants and expectations for the next contract will help the team's financial planning, and if the Celtics want to keep him, the team needs to consider what obligations they will assume over the long term.

I tend to stay Pozin because the basketball skills he possesses are really hard to find a replacement, even if his injury history is full of uncertainty. Trading last year's FMVP was a bold step, but Brown's technology, output and scarcity are enough to attract a range of potential suitors. After all, every team needs a striker, and players like Brown who are full of vitality on both sides of the offense and defense are very scarce. It's just Brown's huge contract and 32% three-point shooting percentage this season and 53% two-point shooting percentage may make suitors a little worried, after all, this season is Brown's worst real shooting percentage since his third grade.

In addition, Brown is not yet thirty years old, and the Celtics basically miss the championship next season. They can use Brown's final peak to exchange for more future assets. Brown's contract has three years left, which ensures that the team that trades his team can use his three-year peak period in full.

Of course this does not mean that I think I should be in a hurry to trade Brown, I think the Celtics can find a suitable opportunity. If Tatum can return in full blood in 2027, Brown is 30 years old and Tatum is 29 years old. Both of them are at the peak of their careers, and the Celtics still have a chance to win the championship.

Trading Brown means that the Celtics will give up the key factors that have made the team successful over the years and will completely change the team's development track.

White's shooting ability makes him more attractive than other defenders in their 30s. His annual salary of $32 million seems to be high for a defender who does not participate in the offense, but based on the current increase in salary space, it is not bad. In the 2027-28 season, White's salary of $32.6 million accounts for about 17.42% of the expected salary cap for the season, equivalent to Kuzma's $24.5 million this season.

White's game style is also perfectly matched with Tatum, he can defend multiple positions, has excellent off-ball ability, and is also a organizer. Whether in the short term or long term, it is much better to keep White than to stay Holiday, but Holiday's deal is too difficult, which may force Stevens to receive some White's offer, after all, their annual salary is almost the same.

Prichard's current contract is quite worthwhile, but his annual salary is too low to really change the Celtic's financial situation. Unless the team needs more offensive firepower in other positions in the starting lineup, they will not consider trading the sixth man of the year, and even if any team wants to get him, they need to provide a generous offer.

Houser's annual salary of $11 million is much lower than the middle class exception, but he has not shown enough strength besides his amazing shooting percentage, so that other team management believes that he can start the team stably.

Like Prichard, Hauser's annual salary is not enough to have too much impact on the Celtic's financial situation, and he may take on a more important role during Tatum's absence. His future in the team is likely to depend on whether the top players will leave, rather than his own performance.

My personal prediction for the Celtics' planning this summer

The first point is that they need to work hard to find a home for Holiday, and if they can bring back a rotation player in the trade, they can give up one or two first rounds.

The second is to listen carefully to Brown's opinions, especially when the Holiday market is in a downturn.

Third is that if conditions permit, it is too important to keep Horford. By the time Tatum returns in the 2026-27 season, the 40-year-old can still make some contributions, especially the locker room, just like the Heat's Haslem.

Fourth, discuss contract renewal with Pozin. If the two parties have too many differences on the contract, they can listen to the quotes of other teams, but must set a high standard.

Fifth, listen to White's offer. Of course, I personally recommend keeping him, but if the trading situation between Holiday and Brown is much worse than expected, you can choose to trade him.

Sixth, make good use of your own middle-class special case and try to sign a player who is valuable to the team and is unwilling to sign a veteran's basic salary.

7 is to leave Cornet as much as possible. Even though Horford and Pozin stayed in the team, he still had a place in the rotation. But he will become an unrestricted free agent this summer, and the Celtics' financial situation will be a bit difficult.

8 is to listen to the quotes from Hauser and Prichard. Although Hauser only shoots, the forwards at the rotation level are still very marketable. If the quote is appropriate, you can trade. Prichard's asking price is a little higher. Small guards like him have little ceiling in the playoffs. If there is a generous offer, you can choose to trade.

Teams like the Celtics, whose core players are mostly at the peak and are determined to defend their titles rarely encounter such a choice. But the best team is to make adjustments when necessary to prepare for success again. Stevens and the Celtics' moves this summer may affect the league landscape in the coming years.