Friday 005 Como vs Inter Milan! Give up the league and keep the Champions League?

1. The intention to fight and the situation of points

Inter Milan is in the championship battle against the enemy

Inter Milan is currently ranked second in Serie A with 78 points, 1 point behind Napoli. He must score 3 points in this game to retain hope for the championship, and at the same time, he must hope that Napoli will not defeat Cagliari. Although the team has locked in the Champions League qualification, the pressure of honor for the league championship is intertwined with the psychological game of the Champions League final on June 1, and the fighting spirit is strong. Coach Inzagi made it clear before the game that he would not rotate the main players, but he should be wary of the potential risks of keeping his strength in the Champions League.

Como's final mentality

As a newly promoted team, Cuomo has relegated in advance (ranked 10th with 49 points), and his state of no desires and no desires may affect his combat effectiveness. However, 5 wins and 1 draw at home in the last 6 games, including drawing strong teams such as Naples. This game is a farewell battle for coach Fabregas, and the whole team may fight for honor. However, the team lacks experience in tough battles and has only 1 win, 2 draws and 4 losses against the top four teams this season.

2. Tactical game and key counterattack

Inter Milan's offensive and defensive system

Offensive end: Relying on the dual-core impact of Tulam (15 goals) and Lautaro (the return status is doubtful), the insertion of wingback Dumfries' assist is an important tactical fulcrum. However, the recent defensive end has caused weak defense at high altitude due to Paval's injury (1.3 headers per game).

Tactical adjustment: It is possible to use a 3-5-2 formation to compress the middle lane space, use Cialhanoglu's straight pass to create opportunities, but it is necessary to prevent Cuomo's rapid counterattack.

Como's counterattack strategy

Defensive counterattack: 5-4-1 Iron Barrel formation is the core, relying on Strefeza's (3 goals in the last 4 games) to break through the wing and the fulcrum of Cutrone, and the set-piece threat is significant (fifth in the season's set-piece scoring rate).

Hidden danger: The air defense capability declined after the reorganization of the defense line (the substitute central defender team is at the bottom of Serie A), and the main striker Dior's season reimbursement weakens his ending ability.

3. Historical confrontation and data comparison

Confrontation record: Inter Milan won all the last 12 matches, and won 2-0 at home in the first leg of this season.

Technical indicators:

Indicators Como (Home) Inter Milan (Away)

possession rate 48% 52%

Average shots 12.3 times 14.5 times

Corner score rate 22% 28%

High-altitude top-square success rate 58% 63%

4. Winning and losing hands and predictions

Inter Milan win conditions

Use crosses from the wing to suppress Como's air defense shortcomings. Tulam's ability to grab points (68% heading top-square success rate) is the key to breaking the situation.

limits Cuomo's counterattack speed, and midfielder Barrera needs to cut off Strefeza's breakthrough line.

Come has a surprise opportunity

Understanding attacks Inter Milan's gap after pressing the gap, targeting Inter Milan's temporary defense line (Bissek's cameo as the right-back).

set-piece tactics target Inter Milan's air defense weakness (Paval was absent), and they strive to score a header.

Score prediction

Mainstream view: Inter Milan wins a small victory (0-1 or 1-2), and wins with overall strength and fighting spirit.

Unpopularity: If Inter Milan rotates heavily or underestimates the enemy, Cuomo may tie the opponent (1-1), or even get upset 2-1.

Data model: The institution initially gave Inter Milan 0.75 goals, but then adjusted to 0.5 goals, reflecting the market's doubts about Inter Milan's fighting intentions.

5. Other key factors

Physical fitness and rotation: Inter Milan needs to retain strength in the Champions League final, and may rotate core members such as Cialhanoglu and Barrera, while Como has no pressure on subsequent matches.

Referee Scale: Referee Orsato has a loose law enforcement style, and the intensity of the confrontation may affect the rhythm of the game.

Weather and fans: The temperature on the game day is 22℃ and the humidity is moderate; Como home fans will create a high-pressure atmosphere to test Inter Milan's psychological quality.

Summary

Although Inter Milan has crushed strength and a clear fighting spirit, the distractions and hidden dangers of the Champions League may limit their performance; Cuomo's strong home court and sharp counterattacks are expected to create an upset. It is recommended to pay attention to total goals ≤2 goals and half-court draws (0-0/1-1)

Recommended draw

Age reference 00 11

In addition, Napoli is optimistic about giving in (-2)

Pictures are from the Internet