Wednesday 004 Japanese League Cup > Fukuoka Hornets VS Hiroshima Three Arrows

Fukuoka Hornets VS Hiroshima Three Arrows Pre-match In-depth Analysis

1. Ranking and Qualifying Situation

According to real-time data of Leisu Sports, the Fukuoka Hornets ranked fourth in the Japanese League Cup group stage with 1 win, 2 draw, 3 losses and 5 points, and have lost the qualification to advance; the Hiroshima Three Arrows ranked third in the group stage with 2 win, 1 draw, 3 losses and 7 points, and also missed the opportunity to qualify. The two teams focus more on lineup training and honor battles in this game, and the level of fighting spirit is relatively limited. It is worth noting that Hiroshima Mirage ranked second in the Japanese League with 32 points in 17 rounds, winning 5 wins and 1 loss in the last 6 games, and ranks among the top in the league in offense and defense efficiency (average 1.5 goals and conceded 0.7 goals per game); the Fukuoka Hornets ranked 13th with 22 points per 18 rounds, and only 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses in the last 6 games, showing fatigue on both offense and defense (average 0.7 goals and conced 1.3 goals per game).

2. Confrontation record in the past three months

In the past three months, the two teams only met once in the Japanese-Junior League on May 3, 2025. Hiroshima Sanarl defeated the Fukuoka Hornets 2-1 at home, and Tripic and Hayato Araki made contributions respectively. In the historical confrontation, Hiroshima Three Arrows have an overwhelming advantage, with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 official matches, and the psychological level is the upper hand. It is worth noting that Hiroshima Miarai maintained an unbeaten record of 2 wins and 1 draw against the Fukuoka Hornets in the history of the Japanese League Cup, and the experience of the Cup may become a key variable.

3. Comparison of tactical system and formation

Fukuoka Hornets:

Recently, they mainly focus on 3-4-2-1 formation, emphasizing crosses from the wing and quick counterattacks, but their offensive efficiency is inefficient, and they average only 0.7 goals per game in the league, making them one of the weakest teams in J1 offense. The midfielder relies on Tsuda Takuma's dispatch, but lacks interception ability (1.9 steals per game, 5th from the bottom in the league), and is prone to make mistakes when facing high-pressure pressing.

The defensive end is absent due to the main defender Ikeda Shuleiren (menis injured) and forward Huosu (cruciate ligament strain). The defensive line rotation is stretched. He has conceded 1.8 goals per game in his last five league games, and his success rate of high-altitude balls is 52% (4th last in the league).

Hiroshima Three Arrows:

Regularly adopts a 3-4-1-2 formation, focusing on short pass penetration in the midfield and breakthroughs on the wing, relying on the personal abilities of winger Kawabi-June (3 goals and 2 assists) and forward Tripic (8 goals in 10 games). 17 players contributed goals on the offensive end, and the situation was significant in multiple points. The midfield double-core Hayato Araki (averages 68 passes per game, with a success rate of 85%) and Yotaro Nakashima dominate the rhythm through ball control, but the forward shot conversion rate is only 9.2%, and the finishing ability needs to be improved.

The defensive end relies on the combination of central defenders Shinoyaji and Sho Sasaki. He has conceded 0.8 goals per game in his last five league games and 0.7 goals per game away games, and has strong pressure resistance. Goalkeeper Takaho Suno has rich experience and has a 72% save success rate this season, but in the last two games, due to the high-pressing tactics, the defense line has been used and conceded 3 goals.

4. Injury impact and lineup incomplete

Fukuoka Hornets:

Main guard Ikeda Shuleiren (meniscus injury), forward Hushou (cruciate ligament strain) has been absent for a long time, which directly weakens the stability of the defense line and the diversity of offense. The midfield core Takuma Tsuda, due to cumulative yellow cards, has reduced the midfield organization and scheduling capabilities by 30%.

The goalkeeper has a prominent position and although the main goalkeeper Matthews Caldera Vidotu is in a stable state, substitute goalkeeper Shoichi Sato lacks experience in major competitions and conceds 4 goals in his last 3 games.

Hiroshima Three Arrows:

Goalkeeper Goro Kawara (hand injury) and midfielder Arslan (knee injury) are absent for a long time, affecting the rotation of defense line and midfield control. However, substitutes such as Mito Tomoya Ki can effectively fill the gaps, with a lineup completeness of 89%.

forward Hidetsu Makaya (cruciate ligament surgery) is absent for a long time, but the forward combination of Tripic and Yuya Kubo is still threatening.

5. Player status and key characters

Fukuoka Hornets:

Midfielder Tsuda Takuma has recovered recently, and has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 3 games. His interception ability and long pass dispatch may become the key to breaking the situation. Goalkeeper Matthews Caldera Vidotu completed 7 saves against Kawasaki forward in the last round, ensuring the goal was not lost, and in a very brave state.

The young winger Yamaki Yama has obvious speed advantage, but it is difficult to form an effective breakthrough when facing Hiroshima Three Arrows intensive defense.

Hiroshima Three Arrows:

Brazilian foreign aid Tripic has been in a hot state recently, scoring 8 goals in the last 10 league games, and scored twice in the Japanese League Cup against FC Tokyo on May 25, helping the team win 3-0. Midfielder Hayato Araki performed stably, averaging 2.5 steals per game, effectively protecting the defense line.

Winner Kawabata Jun has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 3 games, and his wing breakthrough and crossing ability are key weapons on the offensive end.

6. Foreign aid configuration and tactical impact

Fukuoka Hornets:

Brazilian goalkeeper Matthews Caldera Vidotu is the core of the defense line. His save success rate this season is 75%, but the contribution of foreign aid on the offensive end accounts for only 15%, and he relies on local players.

The overall strength of foreign players is weak and lacks stable scoring points. The offensive end is still dominated by local players such as Yuda Kimura.

Hiroshima Three Arrows:

Brazilian foreign aid Tripic (8 goals) and midfielder Leonardo Silva (3 goals and 2 assists) are the core of offense and defense, with foreign aid contribution accounting for 40%. Tripic's personal ability and Leonardo's midfield scheduling are the keys to the team's victory.

Winner Yuya Kubo (2 goals and 1 assist) is extremely fast, and his cooperation with Tripic can tear the opponent's defense line.

7. Institutional data and handicap analysis

European odds: main win 2.70-2.75, draw 3.20-3.30, away win 2.60-2.65, institutions have limited confidence in Hiroshima Miarai's away advantage and tend to score the winner.

Asian Handicap: The three arrows of Hiroshima were initially drawn to give way to the level and half of the high water. The future market was unified to make the hemisphere, with the water level stable at 0.95, and the institutions' support for away wins was enhanced.

Greater and size: 2.5 goals were drawn, combined with the recent weak offensive between the two teams (Fukuoka Hornets have not scored in their last 3 home games, and Hiroshima Three Arrows have conceded 0.7 away games per game), and the total goal is more likely to be less than 2.5 goals.

Betfair data: The transaction volume of main wins accounts for 40.38%, and away wins accounts for 36.98%. Institutions tend to have a slight tendency to main wins, but capital inflows are scattered.

8. Comprehensive analysis and victory and loss deduction

The advantages of the Fukuoka Hornets lie in their home game and goalkeeper's form, especially Matthews Caldera Vidotu's save ability may become the key to the defense line. However, weak offensive end and weak midfield organization are fatal shortcomings. If Tsuda Dao's suspension of the game leads to the midfield losing control, it will be difficult to withstand the impact of Hiroshima's three arrows on the wing.

Although Hiroshima Sanarak has no desires, its lineup is relatively complete, and the combination of Tripic and Shizuki Kawabi may create a threat. The defensive end of the game, Shinoyashi and Sho Sasaki's central defender partnership are relatively stable, but the high-pressing tactics may be used by the Fukuoka Hornets to counterattack.

Conclusion: Combining the fighting spirit, incomplete lineup and institutional data, Hiroshima Sanara's probability of unbeaten away is high, and the offense and defense efficiency of both sides may become the tone of the game. If Hiroshima Three Arrows can improve the ability to finish the front line, it is expected to consolidate the victory; the Fukuoka Hornets need to rely on the goalkeeper's extraordinary performance and counterattack efficiency to create unpopularity.

(Note: All data in this article are from Leisu Sports, the official announcements of the league and authoritative sports media, and the citation content can be verified.)