5 years of $406 million! Revealing Doncic s choice to renew his contract: Why the Lakers are worried about him leaving Luo City

On July 8, well-known data expert John Hollinger interpreted Doncic's contract renewal choice and talked about why the Lakers were worried that he would leave Los Angeles. After all, in the eyes of many people, Doncic's long-term stay in the Lakers seems to be a brain-free choice. Is this really the case?

Doncic is eligible to renew his contract on August 3 (), and he can sign up to a four-year, $223 million contract extension. However, it is more likely that he will choose a short-term contract so that once he reaches 10 years of NBA age in the summer of 2028, he will be eligible for a maximum salary of 35% of the salary cap.

From a contract perspective, Doncic is an exception: he is one of the few superstars who are traded before the second contract expires. This prevents him from signing a super maximum salary at the end of his second contract like a player of his class. Therefore, the huge contract signed by Tatum and Alexander in the past two summers does not belong to Doncic at present... but there may be some in the future.

However, if he abandons the player option in 2026 and signs a three-year, $161 million contract with the Lakers that includes the 2028-29 season player option, he will become a 10-year veteran by the summer of 2028. By then, he can renew a sky-high contract with the Lakers with a total value of about $406 million in five years. The thorny problem facing the Lakers is: it doesn't really matter which team he plays for in the 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons. As long as Doncic renews his contract with his then employer in 2028, he will get the same salary. (There is one exception: as an early Bird clause free agent in 2028, he can only sign a contract of about $314 million for up to four years, but the annual salary structure is the same.)

Doncic may make the Lakers anxious about contract renewal throughout the season. He may also choose to jump out of his contract next summer and try to join other teams in the two years waiting for 2028, and this is a drop in the bucket compared to his entire career income (only about $1.5 million, if he leaves California, he may even easily make up for this loss through state tax savings).

So yes, Los Angeles may be Doncic's best destination, but it's not difficult to understand why the Lakers are a little nervous before he signs. And for Doncic, he doesn't have to rush to make a decision - he can complete the contract renewal any time between August 3 and next June.

The only factor that could convince Doncic to renew his contract with the Lakers was that it would prevent the replay of what he experienced in Dallas. Unlike nearly every other star, Doncic has a strong motivation to become a full free agent in 2028 rather than renewing his contract again. If he stayed with the Lakers until then, he would have been 8 years old and played for the same team for four years (including some seasons like the 2024-25 season). This will allow him to add a transaction veto to the new contract in 2028 - this clause is not allowed in the renewal contract and only exists in the new contract! ——To avoid the sudden transaction happening again.