[6.29 Sports Lottery] Dong Mo today and Sunday 6 strings 1 football match preview!

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Today's event analysis:

015 Club World Cup 04:00 Flamenco VS Bayern

Fundamentals

Flamenco, as the South American Liberators Cup champion, has 22 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in 32 rounds of the Brazilian League this season. The offensive efficiency of 2.4 goals per game in the Liberators Cup shows strong offensive and defensive conversion ability. Their 4-3-3 system relies on the wing blast with 18 goals, 10 assists and Pedro 16 goals, 8 assists. In conjunction with Jesus' fulcrum, the set-piece score rate is as high as 33%. Four of the 12 goals in the Libertadoes Copa are from set-pieces. This tactic once made Chelsea lose 3-1 at home at Maracana. However, the muscle contusion of the midfield core De Alasketa has not recovered, which may affect the consistency of the offensive organization. Although Bayern won the Bundesliga five rounds ahead of schedule and won all 6 Champions League group stages, the defense line suffered a heavy blow. The four main defenders, Alfonso Davis, Yupamecano, Kim Min-jae, and Ito Yoshiki, were collectively injured. The right-side defense gate opened wide, and the substitute right-back Boy chased back speed was significantly lower than Davis, which was very likely to become a breakthrough for Flamengo's key impact on the left. Fortunately, Bayern's midfield control is still strong. Kimikiga Gretzka averaged 6.9 steals per game on both backs. Coupled with Kane's fulcrum of 18 goals and 10 assists in the Bundesliga this season, the tactical logic of consuming the opponent by averaging 58% possession rate has not changed.

Historical confrontation

The two teams have no direct match record before. From the perspective of intercontinental confrontation, Bayern has an absolute advantage over South American teams in the past 10 years, including defeating Mexico and America in the 2020 Club World Cup. Flamengo has faced the top five European league champions in the past 10 years, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with the only win being a 1-0 victory over Chelsea in the 2022 Copa Libertadoes. It is worth noting that Flamengo's 3-1 performance in the group stage reversed Chelsea, proving that it has the psychological quality of fighting against top European teams, especially the efficiency of counterattack under high pressure should not be underestimated.

Fighting intention

Bayern's ambition to compete for the Club World Cup triple-winning champion is self-evident. If he wins the championship, he will become the first team to win the Champions League, Bundesliga and Club World Cup in the same natural year. If Flamenco wins, it will become the first South American team to defeat the top five European league champions in the Club World Cup in nearly 20 years. The last time South American team did this was Sao Paulo's victory over Liverpool in 2005. The fighting spirit bonus brought by this historical significance cannot be underestimated. In addition, the Miami Hard Rock Stadium is only 3 hours away from Brazil. More than 40,000 Brazilian fans are expected to cheer. Flamenco's "half home court" advantage may interfere with the mentality of Bayern players.

Recent status

Flamenco has been in a hot state recently, with 8 wins and 2 draws in the last 10 official games, scoring 21 goals and conceding only 4 goals, and 7 games of clean sheets. The defensive end is a wall. In the group stage, he easily defeated Tunisia Hope 2-0, reversed Chelsea 3-1, drew 1-1 with Los Angeles FC, and advanced as the top spot in the group, showing strong tactical execution and adversity resilience. Bayern has 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in the last 10 games, scoring 32 goals and conceding 9 goals. His offensive firepower is fierce but his stability is insufficient. He defeated Boca youth 10-0 in the group stage, but lost to Benfica 0-1 in the last round, exposing the hidden dangers of being easily exploited by technical teams under the high-pressure system. It is worth noting that Flamenco is in the middle of the season, and the players' physical reserves are better than Bayern, who just finished the season, and the South American team is more adaptable in Miami that night under a high temperature and high humidity environment of 26℃ and 80% humidity.

Institutional trends

Initial game, Bayern gave 0.75 goals high, and rose to half a high on the spot. It seems to strengthen confidence in the Bundesliga overlord, but in fact it hides risks: Flamengo's defensive resilience of only 2 goals in the group stage, coupled with the set-piece hidden dangers caused by Bayern's incomplete defense line, has been scored by corner kicks in the last 3 games. The agency may use injury information to create a heat transfer. According to data from Betfair Exchange, Bayern's 1-goal compensation rate has reached the critical point, while Flamenco's 1-goal return rate of 1-goal acquisition is significantly higher than the theoretical value, suggesting that institutions are guarding against unpopularity. The draw odds of mainstream institutions generally fell to the 3.8 range, lower than the historical average of events in the same level, or in the script to prevent both sides from falling into a deadlock.

Comprehensive

Bayern's systematic combat and midfield control are still the biggest advantages, but the incomplete defense line may be amplified by Flamenco's wing blasting and set-piece tactics. Considering that the high temperature and high humidity environment is more suitable for South American teams, and Flamenco's "half home game" fans' advantages, the game is likely to be in a stalemate. Bayern may have scored with Kane's fulcrum and Musiara's personal abilities, but Flamengo's counterattack efficiency and set-piece tactics are enough to create a threat.