World Cup Europe analysis: 20 teams compete for 9 seats, 5 teams play-offs, who will upset Portugal and Germany?

The World Cup European qualifiers have reached the final round of group stage competition. In the next few days, 9 new teams will be added directly to the World Cup, and all 16 teams participating in the European play-offs will also be determined.

According to the rules, the first place in the 12 groups will advance to the World Cup, and the second place in the 12 groups will participate in the European play-offs. In addition, the top four teams that did not enter the top two of the European qualifying group but also won the first place in the UEFA Nations League group can also participate in the play-offs.

Let’s first look at the situation of participating in the play-offs through the UEFA Nations League. According to the information released by UEFA’s official website, the first place in the last UEFA Nations League group was Spain, Germany, Portugal and France in the A level, England, Norway, Wales and the Czech Republic in the B level, Romania, Sweden, North Macedonia and Northern Ireland in the C level, Moldova and San Marino in the D level, a total of 14 teams.

Judging from the current situation in the European preliminaries, seven teams including Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, England, Norway and the Czech Republic have locked in the top two in the group and do not need to occupy the quota in the UEFA Nations League. Three teams including Romania, Sweden and Northern Ireland cannot possibly enter the top two. As for Wales and North Macedonia, if the two teams meet in the final round, one team will definitely enter the top two, and one team will miss the top two.

Obviously, Romania, Sweden and Northern Ireland, plus Wales or North Macedonia, these four teams will enter the European play-offs through the UEFA Nations League. Moldova and San Marino, who are ranked lower, have been determined to miss the World Cup. The situation of the UEFA Nations League route is quite clear.

Let’s take a look at the 12 groups in the European preliminaries. England, France and Croatia have already advanced to the World Cup. The competition for the other 9 groups can be roughly divided into three categories.

The first category is that promotion will be quite easy and the problem will not be big. The Netherlands in Group G faces Lithuania, which is at the bottom, and Belgium in Group J faces Liechtenstein, which is also at the bottom. It is not difficult to win. Switzerland in Group B, Spain in Group E and Norway in Group I will face their biggest competitors in the same group in the final round, namely Kosovo, Turkey and Italy. However, due to their huge lead in goal difference, as long as there is no big defeat, they can all participate in the World Cup smoothly.

The second category is not very difficult, but there are some risks. Germany in Group A will face Slovakia at home in the final round. As long as they draw, they will advance. However, Germany lost to this opponent in the first round, leaving a not so good impression on people. Walter Mader, who can't stop scoring goals recently, has become a hero in Germany. It seems that Newcastle is the real winner. Liverpool seems to be at a loss when they get Isak.

The same situation applies to Portugal, which belongs to Group F. Since it only scored 1 point in the previous two rounds, it missed the opportunity to advance in advance twice in a row, and its impression is not very good. The B fee suspension is over, and it is Ronaldo's turn to be suspended. Portugal will face Armenia, which is at the bottom of the group, at home in the final round. If they win, they can advance, and if they draw or lose, they may advance. Portugal will not miss the opportunity for the third time. If it does fall into the play-offs, it can only be said that it is its own fault.

The third category is evenly matched and full of suspense. Denmark and Scotland in Group C were unable to win in the last round, but they did not bring much change to the qualifying situation. Both teams locked in the top two in the group. In the final round, Scotland faced Denmark at home, and the two teams drew 0-0 in the first leg. Scotland, which is 1 point behind, can advance directly only by winning. Denmark can complete the task by getting 1 point. McTominay and Hoylen, two teammates, will be in the same room, which is quite interesting.

Austria in Group H faced Bosnia and Herzegovina at home. In the first round, Austria took all three points away from home. Due to falling behind in points, Bosnia and Herzegovina can advance only by winning away from home. As long as Austria gets 1 point at home, it can advance to the World Cup for the first time in the new century.

Among the 9 groups that have not yet determined the first place, it is relatively easy to have 5 leaders, while Germany and Portugal need to work harder. Denmark and Scotland, Austria and Bosnia and Herzegovina, these two games are believed to be very exciting. Who can go straight to the World Cup depends on the result of the final showdown.

In particular, if Portugal fails to win the first place in the group, both Hungary and Ireland have a chance. If Belgium fails to win the first place in the group, North Macedonia and Wales also have a chance. The remaining seven groups are all "choose one". Therefore, there are a total of 20 teams competing for the last 9 places to qualify for the World Cup.

In addition to Romania, Sweden and Northern Ireland, which have locked in the European play-offs through the UEFA Nations League, there are also Albania in Group K and the Czech Republic in Group L. Because they have locked in the second place in the group, five teams have determined in advance that they need to participate in the play-offs.

Will there be another upset in the European qualifiers for the World Cup? Will it be Germany or Portugal? What’s more interesting is, will Italy meet Sweden first and then North Macedonia in the play-offs?